© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com
THURSDAY
AUGUST 23
2001

Mounting violence between Israel and the Palestinians has heightened tensions across the Middle East, but the threat of a full-scale Israeli invasion of the Palestinian territories evokes a much greater fear, namely the potential for another Arab-Israeli war.

None of Israel's Arab neighbors, however, have the reason or capabilities to go to war, and U.S. pressure will be aimed at preventing Israel from launching first strikes.

Arab foreign ministers met in Cairo Aug. 22 for an emergency Arab League summit. The meeting was being held at the request of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, in hopes that it will strengthen Arab support for the current intifada, which began 11 months ago.

But although Arab nations have condemned Israel's aggressive acts, they have offered only limited financial assistance, and the meeting was expected to produce more of the same. None of Israel's Arab neighbors are in a position to go to war with the Jewish state.

The Arab states are too restricted by their limited military capabilities and economic and political concerns to launch an offensive. Moreover, the United States will bolster its own involvement in the region to reassure Israel and keep it from launching an attack on Arab states.

Since its creation in 1948, Israel has fought three wars with its Arab neighbors. The increasing likelihood of a full-scale Israeli invasion of the territories is now heightening tensions across the region and could threaten to destabilize Jordan. But a number of factors make a larger war in the Middle East unlikely at the moment.

Most importantly, Israel's Arab neighbors do not have the military capability to successfully challenge the Jewish state. Israel's chief security concern lies to its north, with Syria remaining a strategic threat. But Syria is handicapped by a number of factors.

First, its well-trained and disciplined 320,000-member armed forces are crippled by military hardware that is outdated and in disrepair. For instance, most of the Syrian air force's 589 combat aircraft, vital in any conflict with Israel, are decades-old fighters.

Secondly, Syria has few allies it can rely upon for military assistance. Damascus hopes to purchase the Russian S-300 air defense system from Moscow. But so far, Russia has been reluctant to ink a deal, and even if an agreement were reached it would be months before Syria received the weapons systems. In the interim, the government is risking Israeli and Arab ire by turning to Iraq for military cooperation to defend itself against Israel.

Perhaps most importantly, Israel still occupies the strategic Golan Heights, denying Syria a defensible entrance into Israel. Damascus could try and use its influence in Lebanon, where it has an estimated 35,000 troops stationed, as a lever to draw Israel into another proxy conflict, such as against Lebanese guerrillas or militants in the country.

But Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has demonstrated his willingness to strike Syrian targets in Lebanon directly, such as earlier this year following an attack by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, rather than fight a proxy war. Damascus will instead assume a defensive but not a provocative posture, hoping to prevent a pre-emptive Israeli strike.

Egypt is even less likely than Syria to want war with Israel. The Egyptian military suffers from significant readiness problems despite a well-equipped 450,000-member force. With a weak Syria as its main ally, Egypt would be forced to bear the brunt of any Israeli onslaught.

The Egyptian government is also unlikely to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel – an action that would put at risk the $2 billion in annual U.S. aid – in defense of the Palestinians. Cairo will instead continue to issue strong diplomatic statements against Israel but will not initiate hostilities by itself.

Jordan, Israel's neighbor to the east, is another unlikely opponent, as it appears to be working with Israel. Jordanian security forces arrested a Lebanese man caught smuggling a carload of Katyusha rockets, a favorite of the Hezbollah militia, over the border a few weeks ago. The Jordanian government then announced stricter border controls for Lebanese citizens.

The region's other Muslim nations, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, also won't desire to get involved, since an Israel offensive against the Palestinians would not directly threaten their national interests.

These countries cannot risk a downturn in their economies, as they are beset with high unemployment and wide popular dissent. Conflict with Israel would result in a loss of oil revenue and endanger foreign investment, giving the domestic opposition in these countries an issue to exploit.

Domestic stability and economic growth are more important for these countries than a war with Israel from which they would gain nothing. There will be much rhetorical condemnation of the Israeli government, with perhaps some increased aid to the Palestinians and appeals to the West, especially the United States, to do something to stop the violence. But for the most part, the Arab world is neutralized.

There are, however, two concerns that could tip the balance in favor of regional conflict. One is the potential for Israel to launch first strikes. Israel would attack Syria, Iraq and possibly even Egypt if it thought the Arab states were preparing an offensive. Egypt's upcoming military exercises in the Sinai will raise concerns in Israel, but Cairo is counting on the United States to control Tel Aviv.

Washington has already stepped up its efforts to convince Israel that first strikes are unnecessary. The United States is initiating a conciliatory campaign toward moderate Egypt and Jordan, including through the use of military assistance.

The Pentagon this month asked Congress to approve the sale of 100 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Egypt for $590 million, while a high-level U.S. military delegation met with Jordanian officials last week.

On the other hand, the U.S. government is using military power to pressure Iraq and Syria. While Syria is likely turning to Iraq mainly for defensive support against a possible Israeli strike, Baghdad could use its opening in the country for offensive attacks against Tel Aviv.

Washington recently launched a series of strikes against Iraqi air defenses, possibly in part to warn Baghdad to stay out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while it is also monitoring Syria and Iraq's cooperation

Another dangerous prospect in the region would be a threatened regime in Jordan. Palestinians already account for approximately half of Jordan's 5 million inhabitants, including both refugees and Jordanian citizens of Palestinian descent.

A massive influx of Palestinian refugees, prompted by an Israeli invasion of the West Bank, would create an immediate humanitarian crisis.

It would also trigger a political and security crisis that could threaten young King Abdullah. In the early 1970s, Abdullah's father King Hussein underwent similar difficulties, after Palestinian refugees in Jordan began mobilizing guerrilla forces to challenge Israel.

A repeat of this uprising, known as Black September, could destabilize the entire country, and possibly offer Iraq an opportunity to exploit in order to infiltrate more of its forces. The Jordanian military would be forced to turn to Washington for help. Each of Israel's Arab neighbors is calculating its position in the context of the current crisis. Unable or unwilling to challenge Israel to yet another war, these nations are now looking for alternate resolutions that will include greater U.S. involvement. Washington will become the guarantor of the regime in Jordan and more importantly, the bulwark against an Israeli offensive.