© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

SUNDAY
AUGUST 19
2001

An incident involving a U.S. F-16 flying into Syrian airspace may be linked with intelligence reports of Iraqi military incursions into Jordan, according to Stratfor Global Intelligence.

“The U.S. Air Force reported Aug. 15 that an F-16 patrolling Iraq accidentally flew through Syrian airspace,” reports Stratfor. “The duration and depth of the flight suggests it was not a detour but a reconnaissance mission. Coming in the wake of reports of Iraqi incursions into Jordan, the incident indicates the Bush administration is closely considering the potential for Iraqi meddling in Israel's political crisis.”

WorldNetDaily was first to report the Iraqi incursion July 26 in conjunction with Debka-Net-Weekly.

A U.S. F-16 en route for patrol of the northern Iraqi no-fly zone accidentally flew over northern Syria without incident Aug. 15, according to Air Force spokesman Maj. Scott Vadnais. The lone fighter, which flew out of Turkey's Incirlik airbase, reportedly spent 23 minutes in Syrian airspace before entering Iraq five miles south of the 36th parallel.

“Considering the duration of the incursion and depth of the plane's path into Syria, it is unlikely the overflight was an accident,” reports Stratfor. “Rather, it may have been a reconnaissance mission seeking evidence of Iraqi military presence in Syria.”

The report continues: “U.S. officials have expressed concern over reports of Iraqi commandos in Jordan. Washington may soon be forced to attack Iraqi troops in order to maintain a firewall between the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and a belligerent Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.”

Washington has been cautious not to launch a substantial attack on Iraq for fear of the potential impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to Stratfor.

“But Hussein now appears eager to link the conflicts, exploiting the Israeli crisis to escape Iraq's containment,” the Stratfor report says. “The United States may have no choice but to strike first.”

The Pentagon's explanation of the F-16 incident over Syria is difficult to believe. Syrian airspace is politically sensitive, and the U.S. pilot logically would have the sense and navigational tools to avoid it. Considering the time the F-16 spent in Syrian airspace, it appears it crossed some 200 miles of Syrian territory. Assuming a straight flight to the point at which it entered Iraq, the F-16 would have entered Syria south of the Turkish city of Gaziantep, reports Stratfor.

“That path is almost a beeline from Incirlik,” says Stratfor.

Stratfor adds, the F-16 pilot was reportedly flying alone. It would seem unwise to send a single F-16 off to Iraq without support, given increased Iraqi air-defense efforts. Allied planes usually patrol the no-fly zones in groups of several dozen, and according to the Air Force, Iraq fired missiles at the patrol on Aug. 15.

Rear Adm. Craig R. Quigley, a Pentagon spokesman, acknowledged to reporters Aug. 16 that an AWACS aircraft was carefully monitoring the movement of the plane.

''We had an AWACS aircraft up and saw that he was steering wrong, that he was into Syrian airspace, and called him out, and he got out of Syrian airspace,'' Quigley said.

But when asked why the crew of the AWACS did not alert the pilot quickly to get back on course, Quigley had little to say. ''I can't explain those tactical details to you. I'm sorry,'' he said. ''I don't know.''

Washington has reason to suspect Iraqi deployments in Syria. In early June, the London Sunday Telegraph cited U.K. Ministry of Defense sources as saying that Iraqi troops were massing between Arbil and Kirkuk in preparation for an attack on Kurdistan. The troops would have been in the vicinity of Highway 2, which runs east to Mosul and then intersects Highway 715 into Syria. Hussein's son and heir apparent, Qusay Hussein, was allegedly in charge of the operation.

The attack on Kurdistan never happened, but events in Baghdad and Jordan raise the possibility that troops have been or are being diverted to assist Syria for a potential conflict with Israel.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa Miro arrived in Baghdad Aug. 11; he was the highest-ranking Syrian official to visit Iraq in two decades. Miro and Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassein Ramadan signed a series of cooperation agreements Aug. 13. Though the deals mostly involved trade, Ramadan stressed that Iraq is committed to assisting Syria "in all fields, including military."

UPI also reported Aug. 13 that U.S. intelligence and administration sources expressed concern over increased Iraqi activity on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as in Jordan. The officials said Iraq apparently is trying to smuggle arms and small commando units into the West Bank through Jordan. A joint Israeli-Jordanian operation reportedly foiled a recent Iraqi attempt to smuggle mortars and shells to Palestinian forces in the town of Kafr Saba.

According to UPI, Iraq is pumping funds and agents into Palestinian territories under cover of relief operations. Meanwhile, Iraqi flags and images of Hussein are becoming more common at demonstrations in Bethlehem, Ramallah and Nablus. But that may be the tip of the iceberg.

“Fearful that Iraq will widen the Israeli conflict, Washington is now apparently preparing to intervene,” reports Stratfor. “Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of the U.S. Central Command, met separately with Jordanian Prime Minister Ali Abu-Ragheb, who also holds the defense portfolio, and Gen. Mohammad Yousef Malkawi of the Jordanian armed forces on Aug. 16. Apart from saying the talks focused on defense cooperation, they released no details.”