© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com
FRIDAY
JULY 27
2001

The confidence of the Iraqi regime, led by President Saddam Hussein, appears to be growing.

In recent days, Iraqi forces have fired at a U.S. E-2C surveillance plane in Kuwaiti airspace and, on July 24, narrowly missed an American U-2 spy plane over southern Iraq. (There are separate reports of Iraqi troop and armor movements near and across the Jordanian border.)

In turn, the United States appears to be planning a military operation against Iraq. The U.S. military is considering air and missile strikes, according to sources. The current political context suggests that a strike will aim to cripple air defenses and possibly damage Iraq's military infrastructure, to include its efforts at weapons of mass destruction. An attack is likely to use retaliation as a pretext. It is unclear when such an attack could take place.

Such an attack, however, is unlikely to significantly shift the political equation in Iraq, such as removing the current regime from power. Washington instead appears to be counting on little international impact. However, an air or missile campaign would allow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to proclaim his country the victim of U.S. aggression and renew his plea for an end to the enforcement of the no-fly zones.

Recent events have left the United States in a weak position in the Persian Gulf. Russia's veto of U.S.-backed "smart sanctions" last month at the United Nations – combined with Washington's continuing attempts to prevent full-scale war between Israelis and Palestinians – undercut U.S. influence. Regional pressures are forcing Washington to step up involvement in Iraq. President Bush said on July 26 that Saddam is "still a menace" and vowed to "keep the pressure on Iraq.''

Much is not clear about a U.S. potential mission. Questions of timing and scope are not widely known; neither is whether or not British forces would participate. Tellingly, however, U.S. forces have not yet retaliated with limited strikes for the latest shoot-down attempt. This is a departure from recent practice in which U.S. jets attack air defense targets upon provocation. CNN also has reported plans for an operation.

More important than the shoot-down attempts are signs of increasing activity by Iraq's military. Iraq has also been moving surface-to-air missiles and increasingly using new radars hard-wired to command-and-control facilities.

Iraq's renewed attempts to track or shoot down American and British planes have led to a resumption of regular retaliatory strikes. In February, the United States sent a large strike package into Iraq to neutralize the growing air defense threat. After laying low for several months, Iraq's air defenses have resumed their challenge with nearly daily efforts to light up radars and shoot down aircraft. Pentagon officials have warned that U.S. and British pilots patrolling no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq have faced increasing danger from Iraqi defenses.

The Iraqis are increasingly bursting their radars, firing a missile and turning the radar off to avoid return fire, according to sources. The refinement of this tactic would be made easiest by the acquisition of better radars and tying them into the command posts. In addition, Baghdad has deployed significant numbers of troops toward Kurdish enclaves in the north, The London Daily Telegraph recently reported.

Washington has comparatively little to lose by launching an attack. The Bush administration has lost the smart sanctions battle at the United Nations. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems beyond U.S. influence. And Iraq has been free of international weapons inspectors for almost three years. The Bush administration must only be careful not to upset Arab nations enough to impact the price of oil.

A series of recent reports indicates that Iraq is taking advantage of the passage of time to try to rebuild its weapons of mass destruction program. During the intervening period, the Iraqi regime has been able to reconstitute not only conventional military capabilities such as air defenses but likely certain components of the weapons of mass destruction program, as well.

The U-2 incident could be a convenient pretext for the United States to strike. Likely targets would include air defense facilities – including early warning radars, rebuilt since strikes earlier this year – as well as WMD facilities. The Iraqi army could be a target as well. There have been reports of Iraq improving its ability to transport forces around the country.

The United States has at its disposal the usual forces capable of carrying out a limited military operation. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, about 25,000 American personnel are in theater, on ships in the Persian Gulf, at air bases in Turkey and Saudi Arabia and in a small army contingent in Kuwait. Land-based and sea-based planes are at the ready – the USS Constellation is in the region – along with supporting elements such as electronic jamming planes, for just such emergencies.

Every bomb that strikes Iraq may be another nail in the coffin of U.S. containment policy. But that policy, composed of the sanctions and no-fly zones, is effectively dead anyhow.