© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com
WEDNESDAY
MAY 23
2001

As the Bush administration examines bolstering U.S. involvement in resolving the Palestinian Arab uprising, Israel has stepped up its rhetoric with Syria.

Responding to Hezbollah attacks against Israeli army positions in South Lebanon, high-ranking Israeli officials warned of war between the two nations May 20. But despite the tough talk, neither Israel nor Syria wants war. Instead, the two are engaged in a game of brinkmanship that could escalate tensions in the war-ravaged region, reports Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

Israeli Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Yaalon said May 20 that a war between Israel and Syria has become a possibility. Moreover, Israel's Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer has threatened to launch retaliatory strikes against Syrian military assets in Lebanon if Damascus continues to support attacks against Israel by the South Lebanon-based guerrilla organization Hezbollah.

But war between the two Middle Eastern neighbors is not imminent. Israel does not want to revive the conflict along its northern border and Syria does not have the military capability to best Israel.

The attacks by Hezbollah risk forcing Israel's hand with Syria. Assad is counting on Israel's reluctance to return to South Lebanon. But if Syria pushes Israel far enough, it may follow through with its threat to strike back. In turn, Syria will have to heighten its military stance. While a full-blown war between the two is not on the horizon, both Israel and Syria risk escalating tensions along Israel's northern borders just as the Bush administration increases its involvement.

The Israeli Defense Forces have heightened their alert status along the Israel-Lebanon border. The IDF is concerned that the Shiite Hezbollah militia will launch cross-border attacks tomorrow to mark the one-year anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from South Lebanon. Israel withdrew from South Lebanon last year after 22 years of occupation.

Israel enjoys a significant military advantage over Syria. Most of Syria's weapons systems suffer from obsolescence and a lack of spare parts. Damascus has not bought any new planes since the 1980s; almost one-fourth of its main battle tanks are static; its ships and submarines are decrepit, and its early warning systems woefully out-of-date.

After the collapse of the Soviet empire, Syria lost its key military backer. The late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad traveled to Moscow in 1999 to purchase upgraded weapons systems, including a squadron of SU-27 fighters. But deliveries were delayed due to Syria's $12 billion debt to Russia, reported the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin in June 2000.

For its part, Syria has an estimated 35,000 troops stationed in Lebanon. Jane's Information Group says the Hezbollah's armed faction has 300 seasoned guerrillas, with another 2,000 on standby.

Assad's relative inexperience also limits Syria's war-fighting ability. Rumors of a power struggle in Damascus and dissent within Lebanon combine to hinder Assad's effectiveness. Indeed, local reports suggested Assad cut short a visit to Egypt last week after learning Israel was planning an attack against Syria. But Assad's sudden return to Damascus, and the failure of an Israeli attack to materialize, more likely hints at Syrian domestic problems.

Because of these strategic and political disadvantages, Syria is inclined to seek a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict. In fact, Syria is working closely with Egypt on a diplomatic strategy. In addition to hosting the EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, Cairo and Damascus have both appealed to Russia to intervene. Last week, Assad also traveled to Egypt to meet with Mubarak and coordinate policies.